Dubai’s Real Estate Market Isn’t Crashing — It’s Correcting, and That’s Good News for Investors
By Ammar Malhi
Dubai’s real estate sector has lately been the subject of widespread headlines forecasting a “crash”. But according to industry insiders and recent data, what is unfolding is far less dramatic — and in many ways far healthier.
Strong Transaction Volumes Defy Crash Narrative
In the first 290 days of 2025, Dubai recorded over AED 525 billion in property sales, already surpassing the full-year total of 2024. This pace of transaction activity signals market vitality rather than retreat.
Correction, Not Collapse
While rent levels and growth have recently moderated, they remain well above their 2015 peaks — and still positive in year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter terms. This suggests the market is in a phase of normalisation as it matures, rather than undergoing a collapse.
Supply Pressure Exists, But is Uneven
One source of concern is the handover of new stock, particularly in affordable-apartment clusters such as Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC). However, in prime segments — luxury villas and established districts — supply remains constrained and demand continues to flow.
Investor Opportunities Arise
For long-term and savvy investors, the current phase is being framed as a “buyer’s market”. Better negotiating power, more favourable valuations and the chance to acquire high-quality assets are seen as positive signs. Fundamental support for the market remains: a 5 % population rise and forecast GDP growth of 6.2 % in the UAE, among other tailwinds.
What This Means for Your Strategy
Treat the market as one in transition, not crisis.
Target quality assets in segments with constrained supply.
Focus on long-term gains (capital appreciation + income) rather than short-term speculation.
Keep an eye on micro-markets: while broad supply is rising, absorption is uneven.
Conclusion
The narrative of a crashing market does not align with the facts on the ground in Dubai. Instead, what appears to be unfolding is a deliberate correction — a sign that the real-estate market is maturing and entering a more sustainable phase. For the well-informed investor, this correction presents opportunity rather than threat.
Source:
Malhi, Ammar. “Dubai’s real estate market isn’t crashing, it’s correcting – and that’s good news for investors.” Arabian Business, 5 November 2025.